An Optimistic Outlook on Spruce Budworm Impacts and Mitigation Opportunities in Maine

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J.D. Irving, Limited was profiled in a report by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy related to climate change "Facing the elements: Building business resilience in a changing climate". The profile describes how the company incorporates adaptation to climate change in long-term forest management. This includes research which has been ongoing over the past decade.

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Spruce budworm (SBW) infestations and defoliation in forests of eastern North America (e.g., 1910s, 1940s, and 1970 –1980s) have had significant negative impacts on growth and survival of spruce and fir. The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBWDSS), originally developed by the Canadian Forest Service, can assist with SBW management planning by estimating the marginal timber supply (in cubic meters per hectare) benefits of protecting stands against budworm defoliation. We applied the SBWDSS to Maine and for two private forests (10,000-ha townships) to assess potential spruce-fir losses. Application of the approach across diverse forest types and data sets revealed dramatic differences in potential volume impacts between the two townships. The statewide analysis suggested that over 4 million ha of Maine’s forest are vulnerable to the budworm. Projections of moderate and severe intensity outbreaks reduced statewide spruce-fir inventories by 20 –30% over the next 10 years.

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An integrated forest management optimization model was developed to calculate potential spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens) effects on forest and wood product carbon (C) from 2007 to 2057 and to evaluate potential C sequestration benefits of alternative management strategies (salvage, biological insecticide application). The model was tested using simulated spruce budworm outbreaks on a 210 000 ha intensively managed forest in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. Under a severe spruce budworm outbreak scenario from 2007 to 2020, harvest volume and forest and wood product C storage in 2027 were projected to be reduced by 1.34 Mm3, 1.48 Mt, and 0.26 Mt, respectively, compared with the levels under no defoliation. Under the same severe outbreak scenario, implementation of salvage and harvest replanning plus a biological insecticide applied aerially to 40% of susceptible forest area, reduced harvest, forest C, and wood product C impacts by 73%, 41%, and 56%, respectively. Extrapolation of these results to all of New Brunswick suggests that a future severe spruce budworm outbreak could effectively increase total provincial annual C emissions (all sources) by up to 40%, on average, over the next 20 years. This modeling approach can be used to identify to what extent insecticide application, as a forest-C-offset project, could result in additional C storage than without forest and pest management.

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This research was conducted in association with the J.D. Irving, Limited (JDI) Forest Research Advisory Committee and was funded through the Sustainable Forest Management Network. The JDI Black Brook forest district has been managed by the company since 1945 and detailed inventories and forest stand typing has periodically been conducted. THis has provided a rich landscape description of the forest and forest change over time. The project aimed to identify patterns of change in the softwood-hardwood content of mixedwood stands and relate them to stand characteristics, succession and forest disturbance.

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